COVID-19 Cases Have Been Rising: Three Key Takeaways

If you know someone who has had to stay home because of COVID-19, you’re not alone. Cases of the virus have been rising in New York City.

However, experts say this was expected, as there was a spike in cases last summer. More important, the number of hospitalizations is below the previous spikes that have appeared regularly over the last four years, and nowhere near the highest levels recorded in 2020 and 2022.

“The good news is the peak is not as high,” says Bernard Camins, MD, MSC, Professor of Medicine (Infectious Diseases) at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and the Medical Director for Infection Prevention for the Mount Sinai Health System.

One thing that’s different right now is that a new vaccine is on the way, and the experts say you should plan to get that as soon as it’s available. The Food and Drug Administration approved the new vaccine on Thursday, August 22, sooner than anticipated. The new vaccine is expected to be available shortly.

Dr. Camins and Judith A. Aberg, MD, Dean of System Operations for Clinical Sciences and Chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at Icahn Mount Sinai, who have been tracking the virus since it arrived in New York City in March of 2020, offer three key takeaways about COVID-19 and what you need to do to stay healthy.

Another summer surge, but less so: Experts believe cases tend to rise in the summer as more people get out and travel around, exposing more people to new variants. In addition, lots of people still tend to gather indoors during the summer.

Hospitalizations in New York, one of the key measures of the virus, have been rising through June and July, but they began to decline in late July, according to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

Health authorities have stopped tracking the number of individual cases of COVID-19 because health care providers are no longer reporting them and because so many people are testing themselves and so positive results are not officially recorded. Also, the government has stopped giving out free testing kits, so that’s discouraged some from testing. (Another measure of the growing number of cases has been the presence of the virus in wastewater, which is tracked by health authorities.)

Your best defense against a COVID-19 infection remains the same: Keep up to date with your vaccinations, consider taking steps to limit your exposure to large indoor crowds, wear a well-fitting mask at public gatherings or in tight spaces such as an airplane or subway, and talk with your health care provider if you are feeling sick.

The new variant: The latest dominant variants of the virus causing COVID-19 in New York, known as KP.3 and LB.1, do not seem to be any more worrisome than others that came before it, and existing treatments work well against it.

“We will continue to see more variants as the virus that causes COVID-19 mutates,” says Dr. Aberg, who has been seeing more cases among her patients and writing more prescriptions for antiviral medication. “You just have to accept there is always going to be a new variant.”

The time for a new vaccine is approaching: In fact, the rise of new variants is why it is important for everyone six months and older to get the new vaccine once it is available, experts say. COVID-19 vaccines typically provide protection for up to 20 weeks before their effectiveness begins to decline. Data continue to show the importance of vaccination to protect against severe outcomes of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death, according to the CDC.

To explain to her patients why getting the new vaccine is important, Dr. Aberg will often draw a simple diagram. The diagram looks like the branches of a large tree spreading out. What’s important is that the recent variants all extend off the same main branch, so a vaccine that is effective against the variant on the preceding branch will be effective against the variants that follow that branch. The latest variants stem from a different branch than the variants in 2023 that were dominant when the 2023 formulation of the COVID-19 vaccine was developed. So the vaccine you received last year will not be as effective against the most recent variants.

One other point to consider if you plan to get the new vaccine in the fall: After you get the vaccine, it takes about two weeks for the antibodies to build up in your system. So if are getting the vaccine because you are planning to take a trip or attend a large family gathering, be sure to get it at least two weeks in advance if possible.

Tips for keeping healthy:

• Those at risk for complications from respiratory infections may want to wear a more protective mask in crowded areas, such as riding the bus or subway or shopping. A surgical mask provides some protection but not as much as a higher quality N95 or KN95 mask.

• Individuals at high-risk should talk with their health care provider and have a plan for how to get antiviral medications if they become infected with COVID-19 or the flu, as these prescription medications must be taken within the first days of symptom onset. Those at high-risk include older adults, those with chronic medical conditions, such as diabetes, and those with reduced ability to fight infections, such as those being treated for some cancers.

 

The Mount Sinai Hospital Welcomes a New Facility Dog: Everyone’s Best Friend

Dogs and humans have been best friends for a long time. In fact, the phrase “Dogs are a man’s best friend” originated more than 200 years ago.

And for good reason. Dogs offer great companionship, friendship, and loyalty, which has been demonstrated by research and by the smiles of a generation of children.

The concept of animals being used as a therapeutic approach in hospitals to treat patients was introduced in the 1970s. Animals, especially canines, bring comfort to individuals during some of their most challenging moments whether in hospitals, nursing homes, schools, shelters or other facilities.

At The Mount Sinai Hospital, dogs are humanizing health care. They bring comfort, harmony, and healing to patients, along with endless smiles, high-fives, and moments of pure happiness.

The Mount Sinai Hospital recently welcomed Summer as its newest employee in the Child Life and Creative Arts Therapy Department. The 14-month-old Labrador and golden retriever mix graduated from a training program through an organization called Canine Assistants and will serve as the hospital’s third facility dog—along with Professor and Moby—as part of the Paws & Play Program.

These beloved facility dogs offer unconditional affection and attention to faculty, staff, patients, and families. They bring a feeling of home into the hospital.

Bethany Pincus, left, and Kaleigh Bieling, are both handlers for Summer.

“Animals offer companionship and enjoyment for our patients, parents, and staff, and they create a natural therapeutic environment and bring everyone together,” says Morgan Stojanowski, MS, CCLS, Director of the Child Life and Creative Arts Therapy Department. “Whether the facility dog is visiting a child at the bedside, comforting a young patient during a procedure, or visiting a clinical unit to help the team de-stress, there is a feeling of calm and harmony in the room. These furry friends help reduce stress for our patients, parents, and staff, they are sensitive to our moods, and bring a warm happiness all around.”

A recent study led by child life specialist Ali Spikestein, MS, CCLS, Program Manager, Child Life and Creative Arts Department and the Paws & Play Coordinator, and colleagues emphasizes the impact of a facility dog and certified child life specialist duo on children’s pain and anxiety during a procedure. The study also showed the importance of child life programs and facility dog programs in pediatric hospitals, as well as the direct relationship between positive clinical outcomes.

Like Professor and Moby, Summer has joined as a full-time employee in the Child Life and Creative Arts Therapy Department. Summer’s work will focus on reducing experiences of pain, anxiety, and isolation while increasing social support and mastery within the medical setting. With guidance from her handlers, Summer will support the individual needs of the patients, whether that is by sitting bedside during a painful procedure, offering motivation during a rehab session, provide cuddles during times of uncertainty, or sharing in a play session with one of her favorite toys.

Summer is partnered with Bethany Pincus, Creative Arts Therapist, and Kaleigh Bieling, Certified Child Life Specialist, on P5, P4 South, and the Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICU and PCICU) at Mount Sinai Kravis Children’s Hospital. Her clinical handlers prioritize patient needs and design goal-based therapeutic interventions to improve the patient’s social, emotional, and cognitive functioning while increasing overall coping and adjustment.

“The healing power of pets is incredible and, with the continued support of the Mount Sinai Health System’s leadership, we look forward to seeing the impact that the facility dogs will have easing the anxieties of our patients and families, and helping them cope in the hospital setting,” says Ms. Stojanowski. “After all, a dog is everyone’s best friend!”

Learn more about the Paws & Play program and follow the Mount Sinai Paws and Play Instagram for more updates on summer and the Paws and Play team.

A New Program to Screen for Lung Cancer Shows Success at Mount Sinai Morningside

Javier Zulueta, MD

A new program at Mount Sinai Morningside represents a valuable tool to catch lung cancer—the  cancer responsible for the most deaths in both men and women—at its earliest stages when it is most treatable.

Harnessing the power of leading-edge technology, the Incidental Lung Nodule Program employs artificial intelligence to sift through radiology reports ordered for patients for various conditions, looking for incidental lung nodules. These innocuous-seeming spots, often discovered during routine tests for unrelated issues, can be silent harbingers of a potentially life-threatening condition.

The program is marking its first anniversary. In just one year, it has identified more than 3,000 patients, including smokers, former smokers, and non-smokers, who may be at risk. Of these, more than 1,500 people are being actively monitored for any changes in their lung nodules, enabling early detection and intervention.

Early detection is critical, according to Javier Zulueta, MD, Chief of the Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine at Mount Sinai Morningside.

“Our goal is to engage physicians, smokers, former smokers, and the public in early detection,” he says. “Through screening programs like ours, we can catch cancers early and significantly improve health outcomes.”

The program operates automatically, with computed tomography (CT) scans ordered for various conditions systematically scrutinized by computerized algorithms. For example, patients who may undergo scans for other cancers, heart disease, or following surgeries may be candidates for this program. Upon detection of a lung nodule, a multidisciplinary team, including specialized pulmonologists, steps in. Patients are quickly contacted, and a comprehensive follow-up plan is set in motion, ensuring monitoring, timely diagnosis, and treatment.

“The Incidental Lung Nodule Program shows our commitment to medical excellence and our dedication to serving the West Harlem community, which has elevated rates of lung cancer,” says Dr. Zulueta. “We offer not just treatment but empowerment through knowledge and early detection.”

Mount Sinai Health System has been a pioneer in the effort to diagnose lung cancers.  The International Early Lung Cancer Action Project, whose goal is to ensure smokers and former smokers receive low-dose CT, was started at The Mount Sinai Hospital and has expanded around the world.  Likewise, the Incidental Lung Nodule Program will be expanding across the Mount Sinai Health System.

According to the American Cancer Society, lung cancer is the second most common cancer in both men and women, not including skin cancer. Prostate cancer is more common in men and breast cancer is more common among women. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths, according to the society. Most people diagnosed with lung cancer are 65 or older.

AI Spotlight: Leveraging Generative AI to Predict ER Admissions

Eyal Klang, MD, Associate Professor of Medicine, and Director of the Generative AI Research Program within the Division of Data-Driven and Digital Medicine (D3M), at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

Artificial intelligence (AI) can help radiologists analyze images or doctors make diagnoses with a high degree of accuracy even with traditional machine learning techniques, but they tend to require large amounts of training data to accomplish this.

Researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai are exploring using the latest technique in generative AI—specifically large language models (LLMs)—to see if it can achieve accurate predictions with less training data. Generative AI is rooted in the concept of generating new content typically by understanding data distribution.

Using a specially prepared, secure version of GPT-4—a product from OpenAI, the company that runs the popular generative AI platform ChatGPT—the team applied the model to predict admissions in the Emergency Department, based on objective data collected from patients and triage notes.

“One of the advantages of LLMs over traditional methods is that you can use just a few examples to train the model for any use case,” says Eyal Klang, MD, Associate Professor of Medicine, and Director of the Generative AI Research Program within the Division of Data-Driven and Digital Medicine (D3M), at Icahn Mount Sinai. “You don’t need to retrain models again and again for each use case, which is very hard when that can take millions of data points.”

“Another advantage of LLMs is its ability to explain to the user how it arrived at its answer,” says Dr. Klang. The model’s ability to explain its reasoning provides confidence for a physician to use it in assisting in making medical decisions.

Here’s an animated explainer on how Dr. Klang and his team tested GPT-4 against traditional machine learning methods for predicting whether patients who go to the ER need to be admitted.

The study used patient visit data from seven hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System. More than 864,000 emergency room visits were included in the data cohort. The ensemble model comprising traditional machine learning techniques achieved an AUC score of 0.878 in predicting admissions, with an accuracy of 82.9 percent. (An AUC score measures the ability to make correct positive and negative guesses, with an 0.5 score meaning the model performed no better than a random guess.)

The GPT-4 model was given the same task of predicting ER admissions, but under a few different conditions: “off the shelf” (not given any examples of patients, also known as “zero-shot”); given some probabilities of how machine learning models would perform; given 10 examples of patients with triage notes (“few-shot”); given 10 contextually similar cases (retrieval-augmented generation, or RAG); and various combinations of these conditions. In the setting with the most information provided (few-shot with RAG and machine learning probabilities), GPT-4 had an AUC score of 0.874, and an accuracy of 83.1 percent—results statistically similar to the ensemble model.

The findings were published in the Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association on Tuesday, May 21.

In this Q&A, Dr. Klang discusses the team’s research.

What was the motivation for your study?

Our study was motivated by the need to test if generative AI, like the GPT-4 model, can improve prediction of admission—and thus clinical decision-making—in a high-volume setting like the Emergency Department. We compared it against older machine learning methods, as well as evaluated its performance in combination with older machine learning methods.

What are the implications?

It suggests that AI, specifically large language models, could soon be used to support doctors in emergency rooms by making quick, informed predictions about whether a patient should be admitted or not.

What are the limitations of the study?

The study relied on data from a single urban health system, which may not represent conditions in other medical settings. Additionally, our study also didn’t prospectively assess the impact of integrating this AI technology into the daily workflow of emergency departments, which could influence its practical effectiveness.

How might these findings be put to use?

These findings could be used to develop AI tools, such as those that integrate GPT-4, that support making accurate clinical decisions. This could promote a model of AI-assisted care that is data-driven and streamlined, using only very few examples to train the platform. It also sets the stage for further research into the integration of AI in health care, potentially leading to more sophisticated AI applications that are capable of reasoning and learning from limited data in real-time clinical settings.

What is your plan for following up on this study?

Our group is actively working on the practical application of LLMs in real-world settings. We are exploring the most effective ways to combine traditional machine learning with LLMs to address complex problems in these environments.


Learn more about how Mount Sinai researchers and clinicians are leveraging machine learning to improve patient lives

AI Spotlight: Predicting Risk of Death in Dementia Patients

AI Spotlight: Mapping Out Links Between Drugs and Birth Defects

Why a Master’s Degree? Mount Sinai Graduate Students Share Their Experiences and Aspirations

Six recent master’s graduates at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai’s Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences discuss what they accomplished and how they are using their degrees to explore new paths and careers.

How ‘Incredible’ Research Opportunities in the Master of Science in Biomedical Science Program Helped Student Kate Jankowski Excel

“Fundamentally, I can’t forget the incredible research exposure this program provides, which is the reason I came here. The vast number of labs, the varying types of experiences, the great emphasis on science, and the ability to share ideas with others is paramount here.”

Read the Q&A

Hands-On Research in New York City’s Most Diverse Communities Deepens Kelsey Chandran’s Passion for Patient Education and Engagement as She Earns a Master of Public Health Degree

“I think Mount Sinai does a great job of cultivating community. The diverse group of students within a class, combined with the emphasized focus on collaboration, allows for a range of thoughts, perspectives, and vulnerable discussions that really touch on the main pillars of public health to enact change.”

Read the Q&A

How One Student Vastly Expanded Her Knowledge and Skills in Biology and Technology While Studying Biomedical Data Science at Mount Sinai

“The chance to learn from professors at the forefront of biomedical research made [Mount Sinai] the ideal place for me to expand my knowledge and skills,” says Angie V. Ramirez Jimenez.

Read the Q&A

Barriers to Equitable Access to Vaccines During the COVID-19 Epidemic Motivated Allenie Andrea Arnedo to Enroll in the Master of Public Health Program at Mount Sinai

“When I was initially searching for public health programs, I felt drawn to the world-class researchers, personalized mentorship, and welcoming students. The variety of tracks offered for my program was valuable for me because I was just embarking on my career path in public health.”

Read the Q&A

Kiran Nagdeo, BDS, Highlights How a Master of Public Health Degree Put Her on a Career Path to Improve Maternal and Child Oral Health on a Global Scale

“I had many milestones [at Mount Sinai], which include authoring two full-text publications. I also attended six conferences, where I gave more than a dozen presentations, and participated in a global health summer research program offered by Mount Sinai, which involved shadowing both dental and medical complex care services teams at Rikers Island.”

Read the Q&A

How a Master of Health Administration (MHA) Degree and Mentorship From Top Mount Sinai Scientists Are Helping Daniel Caughey Advance His Career

“I was looking for a program that would offer the skills needed to succeed as a leader in the health care field, and that is exactly what I found in this program. The MHA offers a diverse curriculum with courses such as Strategic Planning, Finance, Marketing, and Population Health, to name a few.”

Read the Q&A

Master’s Commencement: Celebrating Mount Sinai’s Outstanding Class of Graduating Master’s Students

Amid loud cheers and applause, master’s students at Mount Sinai’s Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences celebrated their many accomplishments—and the promise they hold for advancing science, health, and medicine—at a Commencement ceremony on Friday, June 21.

There were 176 graduates in the Class of 2024 across nine programs: Master of Science in Biostatistics; Master of Science in Biomedical Science; Master of Health Administration; Master of Science in Health Care Delivery Leadership; Master of Science in Biomedical Data Science; Master of Science in Clinical Research; Master of Science in Genetic Counseling; Master of Science in Epidemiology; and Master of Public Health.

Student speaker Kiran Nagdeo, BDS, who had entered the Master of Public Health program two years earlier after having started her career in dentistry, addressed the graduates with optimism.

Student speaker Kiran Nagdeo, BDS

“Each of us chose Mount Sinai for different reasons, but we all shared a common goal: to advance human health and contribute to the well-being of society,” she said. “During our studies, we engaged with leading experts, participated in groundbreaking research, and immersed ourselves in hands-on experiences.

“As we move forward, let us carry with us the core values instilled by Mount Sinai: integrity, compassion, and a relentless pursuit of knowledge. Let us remain curious, continue to ask questions, and never settle for easy answers. The road ahead may be challenging, but we are well-prepared to face it with courage and determination.”

Presiding over the ceremony were Marta Filizola, PhD, Dean, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and Eric J. Nestler, MD, PhD, Dean for Academic Affairs, Icahn Mount Sinai, and Chief Scientific Officer, Mount Sinai Health System.

Marta Filizola, PhD

“With your advanced degrees, you are now prepared to play a role in creating the future,” Dr. Filizola said. “You will work to understand and prevent threats to public health. You will compile and analyze biomedical data to generate new insights that can improve human health. You will build research studies that can yield the clinical breakthroughs that change patients’ lives. You will help families understand genetic risks, and prepare them for what may be the greatest challenge of their lives. You will be called upon to counsel health care professionals confronting the most complex bioethical challenges. You will help manage hospitals, and, perhaps one day, run a hospital—or an entire health system. All of this is very noble work.  Your future is bright, very bright, because science and medicine need you.”

Dr. Filizola is also the Sharon & Frederick A. Klingenstein/Nathan G. Kase, MD Professor of Pharmacological Sciences, Professor of Neuroscience, and Professor of Artificial Intelligence and Human Health.

Eric J. Nestler, MD, PhD

In his speech, Dr. Nestler focused on Mount Sinai’s excellence in public health.

“Most of today’s graduates will be receiving their degrees in a field related to public health, and our nation needs your newly honed expertise more than ever,” he said. “This year marks a major milestone for Mount Sinai—this spring we created a new academic Department of Public Health and we recruited one of our own stars, Dr. Rosalind Wright, as the founding department chair,” he said as he introduced Rosalind Wright, MD, MPH, to the audience. “She will also serve as Mount Sinai’s first Dean for Public Health. These initiatives represent a major investment by Mount Sinai in public health, with a firm commitment to expand the scope and depth of our educational, research, and community outreach programs.” Learn more about Dr. Wright, a renowned physician, researcher, and educator, in this Q&A.

Dr. Nestler continued: “While our local and national communities represent a major focus of Mount Sinai’s work in public health, we must extend our efforts to international communities to advance global health.” He added, “And, a greater focus in public health is needed to identify and correct health disparities and the social and environmental factors that contribute to them. Mount Sinai’s Institute for Health Equity Research will be a crucial partner in our enhanced public health initiatives to achieve tangible progress in this important priority in health care.” Dr. Nestler is also Nash Family Professor of Neuroscience and Director of The Friedman Brain Institute.

Sandro Galea, MD, DrPH, MPH, Dean and Robert A. Knox Professor, Boston University School of Public Health, was presented with an honorary Doctor of Science degree. Dr. Galea is a population health scientist and epidemiologist, author, physician, and one of the most widely cited scholars in the social sciences. He has dedicated his career to understanding the social causes of health, mental health, and the consequences of trauma and working to shape the field to disrupt them and to change the lives and trajectories of people around the world.

Sandro Galea, MD, DrPH, MPH

In his Commencement address, he challenged each graduate to create a healthier world, guided by three pillars—epistemic humility, radical compassion, and reform through reason.

“Humility,” said Dr. Galea, “is the understanding that there are always limits to what we know. We can and should be in the business, always, of expanding these limits, but we will never reach a point when we can say we have learned it all. Humility recognizes this, allowing us to learn from what others can teach us. When we think we know it all, we are less likely to open our minds and our ears in our dealings with other people. Humility enables us to learn.”

Dr. Galea told the graduates there is a difference between empathy and compassion. “Like empathy, compassion helps us to see the world through the eyes of others…Empathy might allow us to feel what another feels. Compassion helps us go further, urging us to ask why they feel the way they do. When we do, we can see the political, social, and economic factors that underlie the health of many…Compassion calls on us to act, to make a better world. This is why it is radical.

“Reform through reason,“ he continued, “is ultimately about data and the incremental work we do every day to make the world better. Everything we do should rest on a foundation of consequential, rigorous, and inquisitive science. Guided by these principles, our science can help get us to the better, healthier future we all want. But it will not do so overnight. This is where it becomes necessary to embrace what I have called “radical incrementalism” in our work. [It] means working patiently, pragmatically toward the radical goal of a healthier world for all. And this goal is radical indeed—it means building a world that is optimized for health at every level.”

Click here to meet six graduates from Mount Sinai’s master’s programs and learn more about their experiences and passions.

Click below for a celebratory slideshow of graduates.

 

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